According to Yahoo finance, Crocs, Inc. (CROX) will release its third quarter financial results on Monday, October 21, 2013; however, the company's investor's relations page makes no note of any impending announcements. That being said, CROX normally reports Q3 EPS around October 24th. So, next Thursday-ish instead of Monday is possible.
Wall Street anticipates that CROX will earn $0.18 for the quarter. iStock expects the Consumer Goods to hit Wall Street's consensus number. The iEstimate is $0.18, too.
Crocs engages in the design, manufacture, marketing, and distribution of footwear, apparel, and accessories for men, women, and children in the Americas, Europe, and Asia.
Hitting earnings would be a surprise as results topped the consensus twice and missed twice in the last four quarters. Unfortunately, misses have been more painful than hits. Last time out, CROX's shares tanked, nose-diving form $17 to less than $13.50 following the second quarter's profit checkup.
In September, management pre-announced that Q3 would be lighter than originally thought. Management said, "The present financial outlook reflects continued weakness in the Company's Americas region where at once orders in the wholesale channel, as well as performance in the direct to consumer channel, are both below prior expectations; however the Company expects third quarter 2013 gross margins to be generally in-line with prior year performance. The softness in the Americas region during the third quarter is somewhat offset by stronger than expected revenue and comparable store performance in the Company's Asia Pacific and Europe regions."
Current guidance stands at "revenue between $285 million and $295 million and GAAP diluted earnings per share between $0.15 and $0.18. This compares with the prior financial outlook for the third quarter of 2013 provided on July 24, 2013, of revenue between $300 million and $310 million and GAAP diluted earnings per share between $0.20 and $0.23."
Analysts seem to be! uncertain what to expect as none changed their estimate since the company announced Q3 guidance. So, let's take a look at Google Trends to see if can find some hints on what to expect.
CROC's earned $0.37 in the second quarter of 2012, which implies profits will fall by 51%. Meanwhile, search volume intensity for the keyword "Crocs" dipped at a much slower pace of 10.66%.
So let's work backwards. Revenue for Q2 2012 was $295,569,000. Let's subtract 10.66%, and our Google Trends sales estimate is $264 million and below updated guidance. In the September pre-announcement, the executive team said gross margins would be about the same YoY, which was 54.38%. With that in mind, we come up with a gross profit of $143,574,434.4. If other expenses hold firm with last quarter, then hitting the bottom end of guidance could be tough.
Overall: iStock thinks Crocs, Inc. (CROX) has a better chance of missing the street's expectations than topping the consensus. How Wall Street reacts to the news will depend on forward guidance. In the pre-announcement news, management hinted that business should be on the upswing in 2014.
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